Minnesotans aren’t laughing at Franken (or Coleman)

The senate race between republican incumbent Norm Coleman and democrat challenger Al Franken, a former Saturday Night Live comedian, is in full automatic recount mode and it’s no laughing matter.

On November 5th, incumbent Norm Coleman led by a 725 vote margin; however as of Wednesday, November 12th, Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie gives Coleman a chopped-down 206 vote advantage – down from last Friday’s 221 margin, according to the newest unofficial figures.

Minnesota voters cast 2.9 million ballots giving Coleman a total of 1,211,562 votes and Franken fell less than 1% short of the incumbent with 1,211,356 votes consequentially triggering an automatic recount. All of Minnesota’s 87 counties are expected to have the ballots recounted by December 5th and both candidates have dispatched lawyers to oversee these recounts.

Allegations of voter fraud are rife and certainly plausible. As the recount unfolds, seemingly all of the luck has been on Franken’s side, with absentee ballots inexplicably appearing for the democrat. Hennepin County has been the exception, where the Franken team failed to have 461 absentee ballots counted because the signatures did not match or because the forms were incorrectly filled-out. But attorneys for the comedian have stated they plan to appeal.

But most suspicious is the statistical improbabilities that have unfolded. According to an Associated Press report, approximately 8,900 voters did not vote for president, which translates into an estimated 33,700 could become subject to a hand recount – making for a Florida 2000 déjà vu.

Coleman enjoyed a near constant five to seven point lead among likely voters since March, spiking in July to fifteen points and returning to two to three points above the margin-of-error just days prior to the election.

The latest development came Wednesday from St. Paul in which Secretary Ritchie, a Democrat, selected five-member a canvassing board to certify vote totals and likewise resolve divaricating over disputed ballots after the recount is completed by local officials.

The board is comprised of himself, State Supreme Court Justices Chief Justice Eric Magnuson and Justice G. Barry Anderson –– appointed by Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty –– and Ramsey County Chief Judge Kathleen Gearin, along with her her deputy, Edward Cleary, who was appointed in 2002 by Independent Governor Jesse Ventura.

The board’s political biases have been called into consideration by Coleman and Franken supporters alike. But Secretary Ritchie has assured both camps the board will be completely impartial, being described as “extraordinarily nonpartisan”.

Of course, that’s what was promised by officials in Florida eight years ago when boards were going so far as to determine the “intent” of anonomous voters by simply looking at improperly marked ballots.

Mr. Obama's successful presidential campaign

Congratulations to President-Elect Obama.

And congratulations to David Axelrod, whose strategies guided Mr. Obama to victory. It was Axelrod’s mantra of “change” that defined the Illinois Senator’s campaign and put Hillary Clinton on the defensive early.

The Obama campaign managed the nominee’s biography nearly perfectly throughout the primaries and general election, even up to November 4th, names like Aunt Zeituni Onyango (who lives as an illegal in a Boston slum) and half-brother George Hussein Onyango Obama (who lives in a shack in Kenya on less than $12 a year).

Even during the democrat debate when Hillary Clinton attacked Mr. Obama over Tony Rezko, the Chicago political fundraiser, restaurateur, and real estate developer convicted on several counts of fraud and bribery in 2008 – he escaped unscathed.

Mr. Obama’s success was undoubtedly aided by an uncurious press, but ultimately, David Axelrod’s promise to re-arrange the electoral map was made good using the early Bill Clinton model of man-on-the-street and grass-roots campaigning derived from groups like Moveon.org.

The campaign was successful at turning the national black-average turnout from it’s typical 9% to 13% and slightly expanded the youth vote over 2000 and 2004. In addition, turning Florida and New Mexico from red to blue was no easy task…bringing the electoral landslide predicted by Karl Rove, 349 to McCain’s 163. Additionally, former Hillary supporters were peeled-off in decisive numbers.

If Mr. Axelrod is able to engineer President Obama’s re-election, he would join an elite class of political advisers that include Dick Morris and Karl Rove.

Recession recovery track: a U or a V?

In the last recession America faced, we had a pad on which to bounce-off. With the housing industry beginning to boom consumers were tapping into their home equity as the technology sector suffered. Credit was also readily available and employment was low.

The strength of the dollar and relatively low federal deficit, coupled with the psychological effects of a new administration favorable to cutting taxes and fiscal restraint (the latter of which did not occur) resulted in a shortened recession – a “V” shaped recovery track.

Conventional wisdom holds the economy will have a “U” shaped recovery track, as the housing market continues to suffer from falling property values and the dollar’s recent weak performance.

The markets even the day after the election are reacting and businesses are preparing for an Obama Administration.

The Heritage Foundation has calculated that in 2008 Congress enacted $332 billion of "emergency" supplemental spending bills, only half of which was for the Iraq war. And Democrats in Congress are preparing for $150 billion to $300 billion in new spending.

Small businesses, which create nearly 80% of the new jobs in the American economy, won’t fair well under Barack Obama’s proposal to send the bulk of their job-creating profits to Washington.

Office of Advocacy at the Small Business Administration has reported that since the mid-1990s, the small business sector has created 78.9% of the net new jobs in the United States. Sen. Obama is claiming his proposed tax hike on incomes over $250,000 will hardly stifle job creation in this key job-producing sector because "98% of small businesses make less than $250,000."

But Obama arrives at his 98% figure by lumping firms with no employees, the majority of small businesses, with small businesses that have 50 or 100 employees (SBA's Office of Advocacy reports that 52% of small businesses in the U.S. economy are home-based). Census data show that 79% of all American companies, counting both large and small firms, have no employees.

What-is-more the tax rate on the lion's share of small business income could reach 54.9% under a President Obama. The individual top rate will climb from 35% to 39.6% and the Social Security/Medicare tax rate could climb from 2.9% to 15.3%. Put those together and you get 54.9%.But it’s not just small business or Wall Street that is worried, Dolphins owner Wayne Huizenga recently said of Obama, "He wants to double the capital gains tax, or almost double it."

A higher capital-gains tax, along with the proposed income tax hike would surely delay the recovery as raising taxes have historically resulted in less revenue to the Treasury and burden small business.

Moreover, the government bailout interloping and uncertainty ought to insure a slow “U” shaped recovery track at best.