Mr. Obama's successful presidential campaign

Congratulations to President-Elect Obama.

And congratulations to David Axelrod, whose strategies guided Mr. Obama to victory. It was Axelrod’s mantra of “change” that defined the Illinois Senator’s campaign and put Hillary Clinton on the defensive early.

The Obama campaign managed the nominee’s biography nearly perfectly throughout the primaries and general election, even up to November 4th, names like Aunt Zeituni Onyango (who lives as an illegal in a Boston slum) and half-brother George Hussein Onyango Obama (who lives in a shack in Kenya on less than $12 a year).

Even during the democrat debate when Hillary Clinton attacked Mr. Obama over Tony Rezko, the Chicago political fundraiser, restaurateur, and real estate developer convicted on several counts of fraud and bribery in 2008 – he escaped unscathed.

Mr. Obama’s success was undoubtedly aided by an uncurious press, but ultimately, David Axelrod’s promise to re-arrange the electoral map was made good using the early Bill Clinton model of man-on-the-street and grass-roots campaigning derived from groups like Moveon.org.

The campaign was successful at turning the national black-average turnout from it’s typical 9% to 13% and slightly expanded the youth vote over 2000 and 2004. In addition, turning Florida and New Mexico from red to blue was no easy task…bringing the electoral landslide predicted by Karl Rove, 349 to McCain’s 163. Additionally, former Hillary supporters were peeled-off in decisive numbers.

If Mr. Axelrod is able to engineer President Obama’s re-election, he would join an elite class of political advisers that include Dick Morris and Karl Rove.

Recession recovery track: a U or a V?

In the last recession America faced, we had a pad on which to bounce-off. With the housing industry beginning to boom consumers were tapping into their home equity as the technology sector suffered. Credit was also readily available and employment was low.

The strength of the dollar and relatively low federal deficit, coupled with the psychological effects of a new administration favorable to cutting taxes and fiscal restraint (the latter of which did not occur) resulted in a shortened recession – a “V” shaped recovery track.

Conventional wisdom holds the economy will have a “U” shaped recovery track, as the housing market continues to suffer from falling property values and the dollar’s recent weak performance.

The markets even the day after the election are reacting and businesses are preparing for an Obama Administration.

The Heritage Foundation has calculated that in 2008 Congress enacted $332 billion of "emergency" supplemental spending bills, only half of which was for the Iraq war. And Democrats in Congress are preparing for $150 billion to $300 billion in new spending.

Small businesses, which create nearly 80% of the new jobs in the American economy, won’t fair well under Barack Obama’s proposal to send the bulk of their job-creating profits to Washington.

Office of Advocacy at the Small Business Administration has reported that since the mid-1990s, the small business sector has created 78.9% of the net new jobs in the United States. Sen. Obama is claiming his proposed tax hike on incomes over $250,000 will hardly stifle job creation in this key job-producing sector because "98% of small businesses make less than $250,000."

But Obama arrives at his 98% figure by lumping firms with no employees, the majority of small businesses, with small businesses that have 50 or 100 employees (SBA's Office of Advocacy reports that 52% of small businesses in the U.S. economy are home-based). Census data show that 79% of all American companies, counting both large and small firms, have no employees.

What-is-more the tax rate on the lion's share of small business income could reach 54.9% under a President Obama. The individual top rate will climb from 35% to 39.6% and the Social Security/Medicare tax rate could climb from 2.9% to 15.3%. Put those together and you get 54.9%.But it’s not just small business or Wall Street that is worried, Dolphins owner Wayne Huizenga recently said of Obama, "He wants to double the capital gains tax, or almost double it."

A higher capital-gains tax, along with the proposed income tax hike would surely delay the recovery as raising taxes have historically resulted in less revenue to the Treasury and burden small business.

Moreover, the government bailout interloping and uncertainty ought to insure a slow “U” shaped recovery track at best.

Digging to Ireland (situation comedy)

Two scenes...

POV…pan around newsroom, everyone working, some typing, others speaking on the phone; quick cut to the wire desk.

Wire desk: There’s a crisis in London’s Underground, most of the trains have stopped running…have we got a London bureau?

O’Sullivan: Right; call David Vega.

Wire desk: Great someone on-the-scene!

Assistant Editor: When did we open a London bureau?

O’Sullivan: We didn’t, David was my golf instructor, he retired to Orlando.

Assistant Editor: Orlando?

O’Sullivan: Yeah, Epcot has an England façade…wah la, man on-the-scene!

Assistant Editor: But that’s ridiculous.

O’Sullivan: How? It looks like England, plus everyone that
works there speaks real English!

-------------------------------------------------


O’Sullivan: Alright, it’s getting close to the holidays; we need to do some pieces on retail sales for the holiday.

Copy editor: [Copy editor opens his file cabinet, thumbs through the files and waves a sheet of paper] Got you covered…quotes and stats to-boot.

O’Sullivan: [Reading from paper] Experts forecast dismal retail holiday sales [Voice trails-off to a mumble while continuing to read] Good piece, but who is predicting bad holiday sales?

Copy editor: The experts.

O’Sullivan: I see that. [Shakes paper] But who are they?

Copy editor: The ones making the predictions! Didn’t you read the article?

O’Sullivan: [Shaking his head to accept the answer] Oh yeah, the experts.

[Reporter enters]

Reporter: Hey, copy editor, have you got that story on the latest hurricane forecast?

[Copy editor turns back to file cabinet and again thumbs through, producing a sheet of paper and hands it to reporter.]

Reporter: [Reading from paper] Experts say grim forecast for the rest of hurricane season. [Looks up] Great! Thanks!