Scoring the campaigns

This election has seen its share of surprises: the quick rise-and-fall of Fred Thompson, the slugfest between Hillary and Barack, the late Huckabee surge and McCain’s rise from obscurity.

But the most head-scratching is what’s happening now – with only six days left, McCain is fairing well in the national tracking polls as Obama slides.

Why?

McCain’s campaign has been a disaster, period. Save the selection of Sarah Palin, bringing an instant flash of excitement and momentum.

While Barack Obama has been lauded for running a stellar campaign, it’s far from accurate.

Obama has had the benefit of a media more curious about a plumber’s past than Obama’s, the gift of rhetoric without substance and the favorable poll numbers. The most egregious error was the selection of the ever-gaffing Joe Biden over Hillary Clinton.

To spite all the advantages, the democrat nominee finds himself in a very tight race, as Gallup’s latest tracking poll has McCain within two points of Obama and four other national polls show the race is closing:

Rasmussen Reports

Obama 50, McCain 47 -- Obama +3

Diageo/Hotline

Obama 49, McCain 42 -- Obama +7

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby

Obama 49, McCain 44 -- Obama +5

GWU/Battleground

Obama 49, McCain 46 -- Obama +3

The reason for the shrinking lead is directly traceable to self-inflicted blunders, as the McCain campaign pounces to widen the gap.

The tale of two Joe’s may decide this election – one, an average American who asked a simple but tough question; the other pleaded supporters not to question his running-mate’s response to an international crisis during the first six months of their administration.

But the most devastating phenomenon is what sealed the fate of Al Gore, John Kerry and Hillary Clinton – the label of inevitability. Once the air of inevitability has been floated by the candidate and legitimatized by the press, the results of the election are often opposite the conventional wisdom.